Purpose: To evaluate CAMBRA (Caries Management by Risk Assessment) as a tool for caries risk prediction among 12- to 13-year-old institutionalised children and to validate it against the new increment of caries lesions. Materials and Methods: A longitudinal follow-up study was conducted among 72 institutionalised children. Baseline data were collected in the month of August, 2011. Children were individually interviewed to record the nonclinical information necessary to complete the CAMBRA. Clinical information for the assessment of visible plaque was recorded using the Silness and Löe plaque index and evidence of decalcification and caries was recorded using ICDAS criteria. The children underwent the follow-up examination in August 2013 to determine the new increment of dental caries. Results: 19.44% of the subjects were classified as low risk, 22.22% as moderate risk, and 58.33% as high risk for caries. The highest odds ratio (OR) for disease indicators was 7.31 for restorations in the last 3 years. The highest OR for pathological factors was 7.15 for mutans streptococci, followed by 5.54 for visible heavy plaque. The highest OR for protective factors was 0.56, i.e. a negative association of fluoride toothpaste. Among those subjects assessed as moderate and high risk for caries at baseline, 37.5% and 47.6%, respectively, had new cavities at the follow-up examination. Sensitivity for CAMBRA was found to be 47.62% with a specificity of 80%, and the area under the ROC curve was found to be 0.638. Conclusion: CAMBRA was valid and highly predictive in determining the caries risk among institutionalised children. Schlagwörter: CAMBRA, caries risk assessment, institutionalised children, validity